It’s trend season again, and I’ve been working on compiling my top trends for 2010. In doing that, I looked back at my predictions from five, 10 and 15 years ago, and I’ve been struck by all I saw coming (if I do say so myself).
Stay tuned for what to expect in 2010. In the meantime, here are highlights from my forecasts for 2005, 2000 and 1995, along with links to sites that create a virtual report card of how I did.
Trends for 2005, from an article I wrote for The Sunday Times of London. Somehow five years doesn’t feel like such a long time.
The “us and them” mentality—a reaction to terrorism and insecurity—will continue. European politics is set to be dominated by the immigration question. Anti-Americanism will spread.
Gender lines will be redrawn as men reclaim their masculinity. Watch out for predatory, liberated he-men and a new battle of the sexes as males decide they don’t want to be soft metrosexuals anymore.
We will see Chinese power surge. Lenovo’s acquisition of IBM’s personal computer business is the beginning of a new tomorrow where the Chinese will make their weight, and their brains, felt worldwide. While the 2008 Olympics in Beijing are garnering attention, sports are setting a backdrop for a new consumer class to strut their stuff.
The current deep concern for Africa will increase as the world’s leading powers confront the cost of HIV on that continent.
Sleep is the new sex. A good night’s sleep has come to beat a great orgasm, and an uninterrupted snooze is the most coveted luxury of all. Look out for more adverts for sleeping aids, from the organic to the pharmacological to the wacky.
Finally, blogging is rapidly going mainstream in America and Britain, and blog mania is reaching into China and India, too. Blog is the most looked-up word on Merriam-Webster’s online dictionary. But in 2005, blogger beware: If you write it and post it, don’t expect to keep your anonymity.
Trends for 2000 (and the whole millennium), excerpted from 65 forecasts I made with my colleagues for the World Future Society. Remember when all these phenomena were new?
Living in the global village. The ability of information technology to bring the world into our living rooms has made us more aware not only of each other’s passions and plights. There will be a deepening sense that one can “think globally” and “act globally.”
Automated bedrooms are coming, allowing us to control lights, phones, drapes, alarms, media, climate, etc., with the touch of a button.
Intelligent refrigerators will keep track of essentials; the homeowner can print out a list prior to grocery shopping or transmit it electronically to a home-delivery service.
Cyber-Spock: The Internet will offer growing amounts of parenting resources; companies hoping to lure customers to their products will create many sites.
“Nannycams” hidden inside teddy bears and other security measures at day-care centers will give parents visual access to their children at all times.
In-home videoconferencing will catch on as a way for families scattered around the world to stay in touch. [I didn’t name names, but think about Skype, Gmail Chat and iChat, to name just a few.]
Libraries will become virtual, condensing their book sections and creating room for large computer labs providing free Internet access, high-tech classes, etc.
Electronic media will not make paper books obsolete anytime soon, but online-only editions will replace some types of books. Digital books will be downloaded to a small, flat tablet, with a touchpad controlling page turning.
Simple pleasures from times past, such as sewing and quilting bees, will emerge as an antidote to today’s chaotic lifestyles.
Comfort foods will push out sophisticated gourmet meals on most consumers’ menus.
The loss of privacy in the age of the Internet may turn people into exhibitionists. There is even a family in Sweden who have mounted a camera inside their refrigerator so visitors to their website can monitor the family’s eating habits.
Computer-generated friendship circles will identify people around the world with whom you might share common interests. New tribes of kindred spirits will unite parents who homeschool, gardeners who practice organic farming, upwardly mobile professionals who bowl, etc. Cataloging these hyperlocal associations will allow marketers to target these groups.
Food-phobia—fear of processed foods and pesticides—will lead to greater consumption of organic foods.
Nutrition-on-wheels: Companies will deliver nutritious frozen meals to busy households once a week. Modeled on old-fashioned ice-cream trucks, meal trucks will circle through neighborhoods. [Okay, so the healthy part of the prediction didn’t quite pan out, but the popularity of gourmet trucks is hard to ignore.]
Alternative health providers will supplement traditional doctor visits. Acupuncturists, naturopaths, dietitians and dispensers of traditional Chinese medicine will see a boom in business.
Beauty-in-a-pill supplements will become popular, as the health and beauty industries promote nutriceuticals and vitamins with purported beauty benefits.
Diseases will spread more rapidly around the globe. Surging international travel means more people will unwittingly transport disease to other countries. A rise in xenophobia may follow.
“Underdog” companies will flourish. Newly formed companies can leapfrog the competition by embracing new technologies before entrenched organizations have time to make the transition.
Values will increasingly influence business decisions. Corporations will increasingly be scrutinized by potential investors for their underlying social values, and business relationships in general will be based on far more than the bottom line.
Trends for 1995, excerpted from my predictions for Fame+Flame, my Chiat\Day trendletter. These now seem like such everyday fundamentals that offering links to support them just seems silly.
Information overload—and junk e-mail—is on the rise; for those who are ahead of the technology curve, quality e-mail time is already at a premium.
Expect to see every business from Fortune 100 companies to Big Al’s Dry Cleaners reserving their trademarks in cyberspace. Just as bilingual business cards were the rage a couple of years ago, an Internet address will become an essential symbol of business savvy.
The information superhighway will become the information supertollway. We’ll be seeing everything from new cars to dishwasher soap sold in cyberspace.
When it comes to emerging technologies, San Francisco currently is “the” place to be. This is the place that marketers should consider when forecasting the future.
Gossip, gossip, gossip—rumors are running rampant about everything from the sexual persuasions of the rich and famous to the impending doom of various corporations.
Tabloid news reigns; many Americans cite “quasi-magazine” shows as their source of news. Talk shows have turned into a national obsession. We may be seeing a kinder, gentler Oprah, but Ricki and Maury and Sally and Montel are more than eager to snatch up the reins of infotrash.
Though they may consider themselves young, the boomers are beginning to gray. They’re still concerned about equal rights and repressive regimes, but these take a backseat to issues that concern them directly: health care, Social Security, taxes and so on.
Social issues will be the battleground of 1995: In the absence of a clear foreign threat, the battle of right versus left has moved to the social front. Hot topics these days include abortion, gay rights and prayer in school.
Fear is a big part of life for Americans, especially younger ones. The topic of death is always close, thanks to AIDS, drive-by shootings, youth violence, teen suicides, even the L.A. riots. There’s a sense of hopelessness among many young people as they struggle with issues of life and death. In some young Americans, this fear has led to despair or anger; in others, it has created a strong commitment to effect change.
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